Field Notes Journal

Seasonal Analysis and Species Classification

Tufted Duck

Model Family : Resident detectability

Female Tufted Duck (Aythya fuligula) at Radley Lakes
Female Tufted Duck (Aythya fuligula) at Radley Lakes David Walker, Field Notes Journal ( CC BY 4.0 )

Summary

Tufted Duck

Resident with summer detectability collapse

Tufted Duck is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration.

Confidence
Medium
Fit score
0.225
Peak detectability
April
Lowest detectability
September

Seasonal wheel

Seasonal wheel for Tufted Duck Tufted Duck Peak: April

Calendar strip

Jan 0.09
Feb 0.11
Mar 0.31
Apr 0.49
May 0.26
Jun 0.1
Jul 0.09
Aug 0.04
Sep 0.0
Oct 0.0
Nov 0.05
Dec 0.19

Highlighted months indicate stronger modelled presence or detectability. A ring marks the fitted peak; a hollow mark indicates the trough where available.

Classification evidence

Target peak month
4
Target peak label
April
Target trough month
9
Target trough label
September
Target peak value
0.49
Target trough value
0.0
Target mean value
0.144
Target amplitude
0.49
Baseline to peak ratio
0.086
Autumn to winter weight ratio
0.069
Year end to winter weight ratio
0.483
Decay to growth ratio
0.996

Observed and Simulated Seasonal Patterns

Tufted Duck Observed Presence, Thrupp Lake
Tufted Duck Observed Presence, Thrupp Lake
Tufted Duck Observed Totals, Thrupp Lake
Tufted Duck Observed Totals, Thrupp Lake
Tufted Duck Simulated Presence, Thrupp Lake
Tufted Duck Simulated Presence, Thrupp Lake

Cite this dataset

You are welcome to reuse or reproduce this material under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 licence but please cite it using the reference below, include a link to the licence, and indicate if any changes were made.

Walker, David. Tufted Duck. Field Notes Journal. ID FN-WL-SEASONAL. Version 2026.05.26. https://fieldnotesjournal.uk/wildlife/seasonal/thrupp_lake/tufted_duck.html

Dataset FN-WL-SEASONAL Author David Walker Publisher Field Notes Journal Version 2026.05.26
Reference: Walker, David. Tufted Duck. Field Notes Journal. ID FN-WL-SEASONAL. Version 2026.05.26.

BibTeX 
@dataset{fn_wl_seasonal,
  author = {Walker, David},
  title = {Tufted Duck},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {Field Notes Journal},
  version = {2026.05.26},
  url = {https://fieldnotesjournal.uk/wildlife/seasonal/thrupp_lake/tufted_duck.html}
}