Field Notes Journal

Seasonal Analysis and Species Classification

Shoveler

Model Family : Winter presence

Summary

Shoveler

Winter visitor with weak autumn arrival component

Shoveler is classified as winter visitor with weak autumn arrival component. The fitted winter component peaks around February, with a weak autumn component centred around November. The model has low baseline presence and moderate summer suppression centred around July. The fitted response dynamics suggest faster departure than arrival.

Confidence
Medium
Fit score
0.097
Winter peak
February
Lowest detectability
June

Seasonal wheel

Seasonal wheel for Shoveler Shoveler Peak: February

Calendar strip

Jan 0.81
Feb 0.93
Mar 0.75
Apr 0.37
May 0.02
Jun 0.0
Jul 0.0
Aug 0.0
Sep 0.0
Oct 0.14
Nov 0.29
Dec 0.52

Highlighted months indicate stronger modelled presence or detectability. A ring marks the fitted peak; a hollow mark indicates the trough where available.

Classification evidence

Winter peak month
1.955
Winter peak label
February
Autumn peak month
10.595
Autumn peak label
November
Summer low month
6.87
Summer low label
July
Autumn to winter weight ratio
0.168
Decay to growth ratio
2.481
Target peak month
2
Target peak label
February
Target trough month
6
Target trough label
June

Observed and Simulated Seasonal Patterns

Shoveler Observed Presence, Thrupp Lake
Shoveler Observed Presence, Thrupp Lake
Shoveler Observed Totals, Thrupp Lake
Shoveler Observed Totals, Thrupp Lake
Shoveler Simulated Presence, Thrupp Lake
Shoveler Simulated Presence, Thrupp Lake

Cite this dataset

You are welcome to reuse or reproduce this material under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 licence but please cite it using the reference below, include a link to the licence, and indicate if any changes were made.

Walker, David. Shoveler. Field Notes Journal. ID FN-WL-SEASONAL. Version 2026.05.26. https://fieldnotesjournal.uk/wildlife/seasonal/thrupp_lake/shoveler.html

Dataset FN-WL-SEASONAL Author David Walker Publisher Field Notes Journal Version 2026.05.26
Reference: Walker, David. Shoveler. Field Notes Journal. ID FN-WL-SEASONAL. Version 2026.05.26.

BibTeX 
@dataset{fn_wl_seasonal,
  author = {Walker, David},
  title = {Shoveler},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {Field Notes Journal},
  version = {2026.05.26},
  url = {https://fieldnotesjournal.uk/wildlife/seasonal/thrupp_lake/shoveler.html}
}