Field Notes Journal

Seasonal Analysis and Species Classification

Pochard

Model Family : Winter presence

Summary

Pochard

Winter visitor with autumn arrival component

Pochard is classified as winter visitor with autumn arrival component. The fitted winter component peaks around February, with a moderate autumn component centred around November. The model has low baseline presence and moderate summer suppression centred around July. The fitted response dynamics suggest slow arrival fast departure.

Confidence
Low
Fit score
0.161
Winter peak
February
Lowest detectability
May

Seasonal wheel

Seasonal wheel for Pochard Pochard Peak: February

Calendar strip

Jan 0.89
Feb 0.93
Mar 0.65
Apr 0.24
May 0.0
Jun 0.0
Jul 0.0
Aug 0.0
Sep 0.02
Oct 0.17
Nov 0.35
Dec 0.61

Highlighted months indicate stronger modelled presence or detectability. A ring marks the fitted peak; a hollow mark indicates the trough where available.

Classification evidence

Winter peak month
1.755
Winter peak label
February
Autumn peak month
11.005
Autumn peak label
November
Summer low month
6.565
Summer low label
July
Autumn to winter weight ratio
0.219
Decay to growth ratio
3.585
Target peak month
2
Target peak label
February
Target trough month
5
Target trough label
May

Observed and Simulated Seasonal Patterns

Pochard Observed Presence, Thrupp Lake
Pochard Observed Presence, Thrupp Lake
Pochard Observed Totals, Thrupp Lake
Pochard Observed Totals, Thrupp Lake
Pochard Simulated Presence, Thrupp Lake
Pochard Simulated Presence, Thrupp Lake

Cite this dataset

You are welcome to reuse or reproduce this material under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 licence but please cite it using the reference below, include a link to the licence, and indicate if any changes were made.

Walker, David. Pochard. Field Notes Journal. ID FN-WL-SEASONAL. Version 2026.05.26. https://fieldnotesjournal.uk/wildlife/seasonal/thrupp_lake/pochard.html

Dataset FN-WL-SEASONAL Author David Walker Publisher Field Notes Journal Version 2026.05.26
Reference: Walker, David. Pochard. Field Notes Journal. ID FN-WL-SEASONAL. Version 2026.05.26.

BibTeX 
@dataset{fn_wl_seasonal,
  author = {Walker, David},
  title = {Pochard},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {Field Notes Journal},
  version = {2026.05.26},
  url = {https://fieldnotesjournal.uk/wildlife/seasonal/thrupp_lake/pochard.html}
}