Field Notes Journal

Seasonal Analysis and Species Classification

Mute Swan

Model Family : Resident detectability

Mute Swan (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes
Mute Swan (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes David Walker, Pixelfed ( CC BY 4.0 ) Source - No changes made
Mute Swans (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes
Mute Swans (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes David Walker, Pixelfed ( CC BY 4.0 ) Source - No changes made
Mute Swan (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes
Mute Swan (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes David Walker, Field Notes Journal ( CC BY 4.0 )

Summary

Mute Swan

Resident with summer detectability collapse

Mute Swan is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around April and reaches its lowest point around October. The model indicates moderate baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and strong summer decay acceleration.

Confidence
High
Fit score
0.194
Peak detectability
April
Lowest detectability
October

Seasonal wheel

Seasonal wheel for Mute Swan Mute Swan Peak: April

Calendar strip

Jan 0.25
Feb 0.29
Mar 0.59
Apr 0.67
May 0.36
Jun 0.26
Jul 0.25
Aug 0.19
Sep 0.18
Oct 0.09
Nov 0.17
Dec 0.34

Highlighted months indicate stronger modelled presence or detectability. A ring marks the fitted peak; a hollow mark indicates the trough where available.

Classification evidence

Target peak month
4
Target peak label
April
Target trough month
10
Target trough label
October
Target peak value
0.667
Target trough value
0.09
Target mean value
0.304
Target amplitude
0.577
Baseline to peak ratio
0.292
Autumn to winter weight ratio
0.06
Year end to winter weight ratio
0.41
Decay to growth ratio
1.673

Observed and Simulated Seasonal Patterns

Mute Swan Observed Presence, Thrupp Lake
Mute Swan Observed Presence, Thrupp Lake
Mute Swan Observed Totals, Thrupp Lake
Mute Swan Observed Totals, Thrupp Lake
Mute Swan Simulated Presence, Thrupp Lake
Mute Swan Simulated Presence, Thrupp Lake

Cite this dataset

You are welcome to reuse or reproduce this material under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 licence but please cite it using the reference below, include a link to the licence, and indicate if any changes were made.

Walker, David. Mute Swan. Field Notes Journal. ID FN-WL-SEASONAL. Version 2026.05.26. https://fieldnotesjournal.uk/wildlife/seasonal/thrupp_lake/mute_swan.html

Dataset FN-WL-SEASONAL Author David Walker Publisher Field Notes Journal Version 2026.05.26
Reference: Walker, David. Mute Swan. Field Notes Journal. ID FN-WL-SEASONAL. Version 2026.05.26.

BibTeX 
@dataset{fn_wl_seasonal,
  author = {Walker, David},
  title = {Mute Swan},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {Field Notes Journal},
  version = {2026.05.26},
  url = {https://fieldnotesjournal.uk/wildlife/seasonal/thrupp_lake/mute_swan.html}
}