Seasonal Analysis and Species Classification

Moorhen

Model Family : Resident detectability

Moorhen (Gallinula chloropus), Abingdon, UK David Walker, Field Notes Journal ( CC BY 4.0 )

Moorhen (Gallinula chloropus), Abingdon, UK David Walker, Field Notes Journal ( CC BY 4.0 )

Moorhen (Gallinula chloropus), Abingdon, UK David Walker, Field Notes Journal ( CC BY 4.0 )

Moorhen (Gallinula chloropus), Abingdon, UK David Walker, Field Notes Journal ( CC BY 4.0 )

Summary

Moorhen

Resident with summer detectability collapse

Moorhen is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around October. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration.

Confidence

Medium

Fit score

0.251

Peak detectability

February

Lowest detectability

October

Seasonal wheel

Calendar strip

Jan 0.3

Feb 0.56

Mar 0.4

Apr 0.16

May 0.11

Jun 0.11

Jul 0.08

Aug 0.05

Sep 0.04

Oct 0.0

Nov 0.0

Dec 0.2

Highlighted months indicate stronger modelled presence or detectability. A ring marks the fitted peak; a hollow mark indicates the trough where available.

Classification evidence

Target peak month

2

Target peak label

February

Target trough month

10

Target trough label

October

Target peak value

0.563

Target trough value

0.0

Target mean value

0.167

Target amplitude

0.563

Baseline to peak ratio

0.084

Autumn to winter weight ratio

0.063

Year end to winter weight ratio

0.382

Decay to growth ratio

1.358

Observed and Simulated Seasonal Patterns

Moorhen Observed Presence, Thrupp Lake

Moorhen Observed Totals, Thrupp Lake

Moorhen Simulated Presence, Thrupp Lake