Seasonal Analysis and Species Classification

Cormorant

Model Family : Resident detectability

Cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo), Farmoor Reservoir, UK David Walker, Field Notes Journal ( CC BY 4.0 )

Cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo), Farmoor Reservoir, UK David Walker, Field Notes Journal ( CC BY 4.0 )

Cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo), Radley Lakes, UK David Walker, Field Notes Journal ( CC BY 4.0 )

Summary

Cormorant

Resident with summer detectability collapse

Cormorant is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around July. The model indicates weak baseline presence, weak spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration.

Confidence

High

Fit score

0.154

Peak detectability

February

Lowest detectability

July

Seasonal wheel

Calendar strip

Jan 0.41

Feb 0.46

Mar 0.23

Apr 0.11

May 0.1

Jun 0.07

Jul 0.0

Aug 0.01

Sep 0.05

Oct 0.07

Nov 0.09

Dec 0.29

Highlighted months indicate stronger modelled presence or detectability. A ring marks the fitted peak; a hollow mark indicates the trough where available.

Classification evidence

Target peak month

2

Target peak label

February

Target trough month

7

Target trough label

July

Target peak value

0.465

Target trough value

0.0

Target mean value

0.16

Target amplitude

0.465

Baseline to peak ratio

0.116

Autumn to winter weight ratio

0.083

Year end to winter weight ratio

0.424

Decay to growth ratio

1.484

Observed and Simulated Seasonal Patterns

Cormorant Observed Presence, Abingdon

Cormorant Observed Totals, Abingdon

Cormorant Simulated Presence, Abingdon