Seasonal Analysis and Species Classification
Blackcap
Model Family : Resident detectability
Summary
Blackcap
Resident with summer detectability collapse
Blackcap is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around May and reaches its lowest point around September. The model indicates weak baseline presence, moderate spring carry-over, strong pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration.
- Confidence
- Low
- Fit score
- 0.41
- Peak detectability
- May
- Lowest detectability
- September
Seasonal wheel
Calendar strip
Jan
0.14
Feb
0.15
Mar
0.2
Apr
0.56
May
0.67
Jun
0.33
Jul
0.13
Aug
0.04
Sep
0.04
Oct
0.05
Nov
0.06
Dec
0.16
Highlighted months indicate stronger modelled presence or detectability. A ring marks the fitted peak; a hollow mark indicates the trough where available.
Classification evidence
- Target peak month
- 5
- Target peak label
- May
- Target trough month
- 9
- Target trough label
- September
- Target peak value
- 0.674
- Target trough value
- 0.041
- Target mean value
- 0.212
- Target amplitude
- 0.632
- Baseline to peak ratio
- 0.061
- Autumn to winter weight ratio
- 0.042
- Year end to winter weight ratio
- 0.253
- Decay to growth ratio
- 1.972
Observed and Simulated Seasonal Patterns
