Field Notes Journal

Seasonal Analysis and Species Classification

Mute Swan

Model Family : Resident detectability

Mute Swan (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes
Mute Swan (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes David Walker, Pixelfed ( CC BY 4.0 ) Source - No changes made
Mute Swans (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes
Mute Swans (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes David Walker, Pixelfed ( CC BY 4.0 ) Source - No changes made
Mute Swan (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes
Mute Swan (Cygnus olor) at Radley Lakes David Walker, Field Notes Journal ( CC BY 4.0 )

Summary

Mute Swan

Resident with summer detectability collapse

Mute Swan is classified as resident with summer detectability collapse. The fitted resident detectability target peaks around February and reaches its lowest point around August. The model indicates strong baseline presence, strong spring carry-over, moderate pre-summer retention, moderate summer suppression, and moderate summer decay acceleration.

Confidence
Low
Fit score
0.371
Peak detectability
February
Lowest detectability
August

Seasonal wheel

Seasonal wheel for Mute Swan Mute Swan Peak: February

Calendar strip

Jan 0.81
Feb 0.88
Mar 0.68
Apr 0.57
May 0.46
Jun 0.5
Jul 0.43
Aug 0.33
Sep 0.33
Oct 0.34
Nov 0.36
Dec 0.53

Highlighted months indicate stronger modelled presence or detectability. A ring marks the fitted peak; a hollow mark indicates the trough where available.

Classification evidence

Target peak month
2
Target peak label
February
Target trough month
8
Target trough label
August
Target peak value
0.88
Target trough value
0.326
Target mean value
0.518
Target amplitude
0.554
Baseline to peak ratio
0.371
Autumn to winter weight ratio
0.088
Year end to winter weight ratio
0.509
Decay to growth ratio
1.333

Observed and Simulated Seasonal Patterns

Mute Swan Observed Breeding Presence, Abingdon
Mute Swan Observed Breeding Presence, Abingdon
Mute Swan Observed Breeding Totals, Abingdon
Mute Swan Observed Breeding Totals, Abingdon

Cite this dataset

You are welcome to reuse or reproduce this material under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 licence but please cite it using the reference below, include a link to the licence, and indicate if any changes were made.

Walker, David. . Field Notes Journal. ID FN-WL-SEASONAL. Version 2026.05.21. https://fieldnotesjournal.uk/wildlife/seasonal/abingdon/mute_swan.html

Dataset FN-WL-SEASONAL Author David Walker Publisher Field Notes Journal Version 2026.05.21
Reference: Walker, David. . Field Notes Journal. ID FN-WL-SEASONAL. Version 2026.05.21.

BibTeX 
@dataset{fn_wl_seasonal,
  author = {Walker, David},
  title = {},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {Field Notes Journal},
  version = {2026.05.21},
  url = {https://fieldnotesjournal.uk/wildlife/seasonal/abingdon/mute_swan.html}
}